2000~2008 WI voting patterns

An analysis of voter turnout in various partisan elections designed to show the very heavy crossover voting in the Feb. 19, 2008 Wisconsin Presidential Primary. [ Now including the November 4th, 2008 Presidential Election results. ]
A N A L Y S I S Detail & Percents links Specific Areas Totals & Percents ANALYSIS: The easiest and most obvious anomaly appears in the counties with the highest Republican turnout in most elections - Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington. While their vote remains consistent at 12% of the total Wisconsin vote for each election, in the Feb 2008 Primary, STILL REPRESENTING 12% OF THE TOTAL, their turnout looks as though they voted as Democrats. Their normal 2/3 Republican 1/3 Democrat vote became 38% Republican and 62% Democrat. The detail shows that Hillary Clinton received almost enough votes to beat Barack Obama in those 3 counties. Then, looking at four of the ten counties (of 99 total in Wisconsin) where Clinton did actually beat Obama, the same flip/flopping of Republicans voting as Democrats phenomenon occurs. The total voter turnout in those four counties (Adams, Burnett, Forest and Iron) remains at one percent (1%) of the Wisconsin vote total but the percentage of Republicans versus Democrats reverses the share of the vote they expressed in other equivalent elections. Looking at the four areas of comparison for the February 19, 2008 primary (4 County, URBAN, Republican and Democrat) one can see that merely subtracting the extra Democrat vote and adding it to the much lower Republican vote brings them both to the normal percentages - an obvious proof that a large percentage of Republicans actually voted as Democrats in that election. Given the talk-radio and other encouragement to have Republicans vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the primaries where they can, it can be safely assumed that that is exactly what happened in Wisconsin. It probably also happened in Ohio on March 4th and will happen in Pennsylvania on April 22nd. Republicans figure they have the attack ads and other ammunition needed to defeat Hillary in the November general election. They are not so sure of being able to go up against Barack Obama - more so for any attack of any sort easily being interpreted as racist in a country becoming less so as our aging population stops voting for one reason or another.

An analysis of voter turnout in various partisan elections designed to show the very heavy
crossover voting in the Feb. 19, 2008 Wisconsin Presidential Primary.
[ Now including the November 4th, 2008 Presidential Election results. ]

A N A L Y S I S Detail & Percents links Specific Areas Totals & Percents
ANALYSIS: The easiest and most obvious anomaly appears in the counties with the highest Republican turnout in most elections - Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington. While their vote remains consistent at 12% of the total Wisconsin vote for each election, in the Feb 2008 Primary, STILL REPRESENTING 12% OF THE TOTAL, their turnout looks as though they voted as Democrats. Their normal 2/3 Republican 1/3 Democrat vote became 38% Republican and 62% Democrat. The detail shows that Hillary Clinton received almost enough votes to beat Barack Obama in those 3 counties.
Then, looking at four of the ten counties (of 99 total in Wisconsin) where Clinton did actually beat Obama, the same flip/flopping of Republicans voting as Democrats phenomenon occurs. The total voter turnout in those four counties (Adams, Burnett, Forest and Iron) remains at one percent (1%) of the Wisconsin vote total but the percentage of Republicans versus Democrats reverses the share of the vote they expressed in other equivalent elections.
Looking at the four areas of comparison for the February 19, 2008 primary (4 County, URBAN, Republican and Democrat) one can see that merely subtracting the extra Democrat vote and adding it to the much lower Republican vote brings them both to the normal percentages - an obvious proof that a large percentage of Republicans actually voted as Democrats in that election. Given the talk-radio and other encouragement to have Republicans vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the primaries where they can, it can be safely assumed that that is exactly what happened in Wisconsin. It probably also happened in Ohio on March 4th and will happen in Pennsylvania on April 22nd.
Republicans figure they have the attack ads and other ammunition needed to defeat Hillary in the November general election. They are not so sure of being able to go up against Barack Obama - more so for any attack of any sort easily being interpreted as racist in a country becoming less so as our aging population stops voting for one reason or another.

Analysis Detail & Percents links SPECIFIC AREA COMPARISONS Totals & Percents
Read: Grand | REP DEM MonYY TOTAL | VOTE VOTE ----- -------| ----- ------ Apr08 1%ofGT 8367| 5142 3225 4 County = 100%| 62% 39% Feb08 1%ofGT 13244| 3769 9475 4 County = 100%| 28% 72% Apr00 1%ofGT 9288| 5214 4074 4 County = 100%| 56% 44% Nov08 1%ofGT 26789| 11601 14730 4 County = 100%| 43% 55% Nov04 1%ofGT 28777| 14125 14411 4 County = 100%| 49.08% 50.08% Nov00 1%ofGT 25490| 12025 12230 4 County = 100%| 47% 48% Apr0812%ofGT 94591| 63835 30756 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 68% 33% Feb0812%ofGT175967| 66630 109337 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 38% 62% Apr0012%ofGT 99973| 74085 25888 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 74% 26% Nov0812%ofGT360673|225053 131637 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 62% 36% Nov0412%ofGT355489|240451 112561 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 67.6% 31.7% Nov0012%ofGT312897|205422 97464 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 66% 31% Feb08 WItotal[GT]1495147|395486 1099661 100% 26% 74% Apr00 WItotal[GT] 866965|495769 371196 100% 57% 43%
Read: Grand | REP DEM MonYY TOTAL | VOTE VOTE ----- -------| ----- ------ Apr0826%ofGT216171| 97846 118325 URBAN = 100%| 45% 55% Feb0824%ofGT362318| 76722 285596 URBAN = 100%| 21% 79% Apr0028%ofGT242752|123244 119508 URBAN = 100%| 51% 49% Nov0823%ofGT700588|251253 440496 URBAN = 100%| 35.9% 63.0% Nov0424%ofGT705604|299603 400375 URBAN = 100%| 42.5% 56.7% Nov0024%ofGT630171|261763 342988 URBAN = 100%| 41.5% 54.4% Apr08 9%ofGT 75861| 22213 53648 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 29% 71% Feb0812%ofGT174100| 25767 148333 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 15% 85% Apr00 9%ofGT 78648| 36000 42648 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 46% 54% Nov0810%ofGT308453| 81085 223071 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 26% 72% Nov0410%ofGT300850| 99092 198978 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 32.9% 66.1% Nov0010%ofGT255678| 82945 156859 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 32% 61% Nov08 WItotal[GT]2983417|1262393 1677211 100% 42.31% 56.22% Nov04 WItotal[GT]2992390|1477122 1488935 100% 49.36% 49.76% Nov00 WItotal[GT]2598607|1237279 1242987 100% 47.6% 47.8%

Analysis Detail & Percents links Specific Areas TOTALS & PERCENTS
Nov 4 2008 GRAND | REP DEM WI National TOTAL| BUSH GORE (rest ignored as insignifant) ------|------- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- --- --- ----- ---- Nov08 1%ofGT 26789| 11601 14730 4 County = 100%| 43% 55% | 3.9% 4.9% percentOfWItotal[GT] Nov0812%ofGT360673|225053 131637 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 62% 36% | 7.54% 4.41% percentOfWItotal[GT] Nov0810%ofGT308453| 81085 223071 DEMOCRAT = 100% | 26% 72% | 2.72% 7.48% percentOfWItotal[GT] Nov0823%ofGT700588|251253 440496 URBAN = 100%| 36% 63% | 8.42% 14.8% percentOfWItotal[GT] - - - Feb 19 2008 Grand | REP | R E P U B L I C A N | D E M O C R A T | DEM WI Primary TOTAL | VOTE|HUCKAB MCCAIN PAUL UnR|CLINTO OBAMA UnD| VOTE -------| -----| ----- ----- ---- ----| ----- ----- ---|------ Feb08 1%ofGT 13244| 3769| 1430 2075 253 11| 5126 4339 10| 9475 4 County = 100%| 28% | | | 72% | .25%| %ofWItotal[GT] | .63% Feb0812%ofGT175967| 66630| 21049 43412 2064 105| 51287 57993 57|109337 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 38% | | | 62% | 4.46%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 7.31% Feb0812%ofGT174100| 25767| 9020 14925 1759 63| 49114 99114 105|148333 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 15% | | | 85% | 1.72%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 9.92% Feb0824%ofGT362318| 76722| 25176 47899 3467 180|107790 177596 210|285596 URBAN = 100%| 21% | | | 79% | 5.13%| %ofWItotal[GT] |19.10% Feb08 3570wards | 100%== 38.23 56.70 4.86 .21| 41.18 58.75 .08==100% WItotal[GT]1495147|395486=151201 224226 19210 849|452795 646007 859=1099661 - - - 100%= 26% | | 74% Apr 4 2000 Grand | REP | R E P U B L I C A N | D E M O C R A T | DEM WI Primary TOTAL | VOTE| BUSH KEYES MCCAI rest| GORE BRADL rest| VOTE -------| -----| ----- ----- ----- ----| ----- ----- -----|------ Apr00 1%ofGT 9288| 5214| | | 4074 4 County = 100%| 56% | | | 44% | .60%| %ofWItotal[GT] | .47% Apr00 12%ofGT99973| 74085| | | 25888 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 74% | | | 26% | 8.54%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 2.99% Apr00 9%ofGT 78648| 36000| | | 42648 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 46% | | | 54% | 4.15%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 4.92% Apr0028%ofGT242752|123244| | |119508 URBAN = 100%| 51% | | | 49% |14.22%| %ofWItotal[GT] |13.78% Apr00 | 100%== 69% 10% 18% 3% | 88% 9% 3%==100% WItotal[GT] 866965|495769|343292 48919 89684 13874|328682 32560 9954|371196 - - - 100%| 57% | | | 43% Nov 2 2004 GRAND | REP DEM WI National TOTAL| BUSH KERRY BAD COBB NADER HAR BRO ------| ---- ----- --- ---- ----- --- --- Nov04 1%ofGT 28777| 14125 14411 170 4 County = 100%| 49.08% 50.08% .59% | .47% .48% .01% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov0412%ofGT355489| 240451 112561 1552 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 67.6% 31.7% .44% |8.0% 3.8% .05% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov0410%ofGT300850| 99092 198978 1592 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 32.9% 66.1% .53% |3.3% 6.65% .05% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov0424%ofGT705604| 299603 400375 3352 URBAN = 100%| 42.5% 56.7% .48% |10.01% 13.38% .11% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov04 3540ward100%==49.36% 49.76% .22% .09% .55% .01% .02% WItotal[GT]2992390|1477122 1488935 6456 2674 16324 414 465 - - - Nov 7 2000 GRAND | REP DEM WGR WI National TOTAL| BUSH GORE LIB CON NADER MORE HAR HAG BUCHA Scat ------|------- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- --- --- ----- ---- Nov00 1%ofGT 25490| 12025 12230 53 34 976 13 2 13 129 15 4 County = 100%| 47% 48% 4% | .46% .47% .04% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov0012%ofGT312897| 205422 97464 7662 REPUBLICAN= 100%| 66% 31% 2% | 7.9% 3.8% .28% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov0010%ofGT255678| 82945 156859 14052 DEMOCRAT = 100%| 32% 61% 5% | 3.2% 6.0% .54% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov0024%ofGT630171| 261763 342988 19700 URBAN = 100%| 41.5% 54.4% 3.1% |10.1% 13.2% .76% %ofWItotal[GT] Nov00 100%== 47.6% 47.8% 3.6% WItotal[GT]2598607|1237279 1242987 6640 2042 94070 1063 306 853 11471 1896

Analysis DETAIL & PERCENTS links Specific Areas Totals & Percents

REP=McCain/Palin DEM=Obama/Biden Nov 4 2008 Grand | REP || DEM WI Spring TOTAL | VOTE || VOTE -------| ----- || ------ S Adams 9986 | 3974 || 5806 A Burnett 8688 | 4200 || 4337 M Forest 4683 | 1963 || 2673 P Iron 3432 | 1464 || 1914 L 1%ofGT 26789 | 11601 || 14730 E 4 County = 100%| 43% || 55% | 3.9% || 4.9% %ofWItotal[GT] R Ozaukee 53365 | 32172 || 20579 E Waukesha 232897 |145152 || 85339 P Washingto 74411 | 47729 || 25719 U 12%ofGT 360673 |225053 ||131637 B REPUBLICAN= 100%| 62% || 36% | 7.54% || 4.41% %ofWItotal[GT]
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Grand | REP || DEM TOTAL | VOTE || VOTE -------| ----- || ------ D Douglas 24066 | 7835 || 15830 E Dane 282939 | 73065 ||205984 M Menominee 1448 | 185 || 1257 O 10%ofGT 308453 | 81085 ||223071 C DEMOCRAT = 100% | 26% || 72% | 2.72% || 7.48% %ofWItotal[GT] U Racine 100642 | 45954 || 53408 R Brown 124754 | 55854 || 67269 B Milwaukee475192 |149445 ||319819 A 23%ofGT 700588 |251253 ||440496 N URBAN = 100%| 36% || 63% | 8.42% || 14.8% %ofWItotal[GT] WItotal[GT]2983417|1262393||1677211 100%| 42.31%|| 56.22%

REP=Gableman DEM=Butler Apr 1 2008 Grand | REP || DEM WI Spring TOTAL | VOTE || VOTE -------| ----- || ------ S Adams 2526| 1329 || 1197 A Burnett 2391| 1851 || 540 M Forest 2059| 1213 || 846 P Iron 1391| 749 || 642 L 1%ofGT 8367| 5142 || 3225 E 4 County = 100%| 62% || 39% | .63% || .39% %ofWItotal[GT] R Ozaukee 13261| 8993 || 4268 E Waukesha 65186| 43542 || 21644 P Washington 16144| 11300 || 4844 U 12%ofGT 94591| 63835 || 30756 B REPUBLICAN= 100%| 68% || 33% | 7.79% || 3.76% %ofWItotal[GT]
SUPREME COURT RACE VOTES Grand | REP || DEM TOTAL | VOTE || VOTE -------| ----- || ------ D Douglas 4450| 2381 || 2069 E Dane 71260| 19783 || 51477 M Menominee 151| 49 || 102 O 9%ofGT 75861| 22213 || 53648 C DEMOCRAT = 100%| 29% || 71% | 2.71% || 6.55% %ofWItotal[GT] U Racine 28399| 15383 || 13016 R Brown 29268| 15603 || 13665 B Milwaukee 158504| 66860 || 91644 A 26%ofGT 216171| 97846 || 118325 N URBAN = 100%| 45% || 55% |11.95% || 14.45% %ofWItotal[GT] WItotal[GT] 818970|419580 || 399390 100%|51.23% || 48.77%
Feb 19 2008 Grand | REP | R E P U B L I C A N | D E M O C R A T | DEM WI Primary TOTAL | VOTE|HUCKAB MCCAIN PAUL UnR|CLINTO OBAMA UnD| VOTE -------| -----| ----- ----- ---- ----| ----- ----- ---|------ S Adams 5324| 1434| 605 726 97 6| 2105 1783 2| 3890 A Burnett 3455| 1109| 421 598 88 2| 1265 1077 4| 2346 M Forest 2709| 765| 267 467 30 1| 1105 839 0| 1944 P Iron 1756| 461| 137 284 38 2| 651 640 4| 1295 L 1%ofGT 13244| 3769| 1430 2075 253 11| 5126 4339 10| 9475 E 4 County = 100%| 28% | | | 72% | .25%| %ofWItotal[GT] | .63% R Ozaukee 27330| 9890| 2602 6969 290 29| 7608 9816 16| 17440 E Waukesha 115069| 43387| 13960 28042 1333 52| 34003 37648 31| 71682 P Washington 33568| 13353| 4487 8401 441 24| 9676 10529 10| 20215 U 12%ofGT 175967| 66630| 21049 43412 2064 105| 51287 57993 57|109337 B REPUBLICAN= 100%| 38% | | | 62% | 4.46%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 7.31% D Douglas 10347| 2028| 776 1099 144 9| 4756 3549 14| 8319 E Dane 163317| 23699| 8226 13805 1614 54| 44168 95359 91|139618 M Menominee 436| 40| 18 21 1 0| 190 206 0| 396 O 12%ofGT 174100| 25767| 9020 14925 1759 63| 49114 99114 105|148333 C DEMOCRAT = 100%| 15% | | | 85% | 1.72%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 9.92% U Racine 50907| 13969| 4986 8337 618 28| 16294 20620 24| 36938 R Brown 60366| 16992| 6400 9862 700 30| 18606 24737 31| 43374 B Milwaukee 251045| 45761| 13790 29700 2149 122| 72890 132239 155|205284 A 24%ofGT 362318| 76722| 25176 47899 3467 180|107790 177596 210|285596 N URBAN = 100%| 21% | | | 79% | 5.13%| %ofWItotal[GT] |19.10% 3570wards | 100%== 38.23 56.70 4.86 .21| 41.18 58.75 .08==100% WItotal[GT]1495147|395486=151201 224226 19210 849|452795 646007 859=1099661 - - - 100%= 26% | | 74% Feb 18 2004 is inapplicable since incumbant REPUBLICAN President Bush had no opponents who would split the vote in a comparable way. - - - Apr 4 2000 Grand | REP | R E P U B L I C A N | D E M O C R A T | DEM WI Primary TOTAL | VOTE| BUSH KEYES MCCAI rest| GORE BRADL rest| VOTE -------| -----| ----- ----- ----- ----| ----- ----- -----|------ S Adams 3308| 1827| 1167 130 468 62| 1368 84 29| 1481 A Burnett 2446| 1393| 951 114 277 51| 923 102 28| 1053 M Forest 1689| 1033| 770 53 191 19| 607 36 16| 656 P Iron 1845| 961| 706 44 184 27| 774 77 33| 884 L 1%ofGT 9288| 5214| | | 4074 E 4 County = 100%| 56% | | | 44% | .60%| %ofWItotal[GT] | .47% R Ozaukee 18280| 14338| 9013 2120 2819 386| 3416 407 119| 3942 E Waukesha 64120| 46854| 35527 4530 5825 972| 15086 1683 497| 17266 P Washington 17573| 12893| 9757 1209 1599 328| 4044 460 176| 4680 U 12%ofGT 99973| 74085| | | 25888 B REPUBLICAN= 100%| 74% | | | 26% | 8.54%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 2.99% D Douglas 7094| 3045| 1964 271 668 142| 3620 343 86| 4049 E Dane 71319| 32867| 19722 2292 9909 955| 30971 5938 1543| 38452 M Menominee 235| 88| 64 10 12 2| 135 9 3| 147 O 9%ofGT 78648| 36000| | | 42648 C DEMOCRAT = 100%| 46% | | | 54% | 4.15%| %ofWItotal[GT] | 4.92% U Racine 28131| 16563| 11918 1883 2335 427| 10342 915 311| 11568 R Brown 39355| 23539| 16843 2663 3590 443| 14671 891 254| 15816 B Milwaukee 175266| 83142| 57701 9171 13928 2342| 81967 7784 2373| 92124 A 28%ofGT 242752|123244| | |119508 N URBAN = 100%| 51% | | | 49% |14.22%| %ofWItotal[GT] |13.78% | 100%== 69% 10% 18% 3% | 88% 9% 3%==100% WItotal[GT] 866965|495769|343292 48919 89684 13874|328682 32560 9954|371196 - - - 100%| 57% | | | 43% Nov 2 2004 GRAND | REP DEM WI National TOTAL| BUSH KERRY BAD COBB NADER HAR BRO ------| ---- ----- --- ---- ----- --- --- S Adams 10439| 4890 5447 10 11 77 2 2 A Burnett 9308| 4743 4499 16 9 41 0 0 M Forest 5154| 2608 2509 7 0 27 2 1 P Iron 3876| 1884 1956 7 4 25 0 0 L 1%ofGT 28777| 14125 14411 170 E 4 County = 100%| 49.08% 50.08% .59% | .47% .48% .01% %ofWItotal[GT] R Ozaukee 52992| 34901 17708 108 25 245 1 4 E Waukesha 230105| 154910 73618 454 115 966 15 27 P Washington 72392| 50640 21235 121 43 341 5 7 U 12%ofGT 355489| 240451 112561 1552 B REPUBLICAN= 100%| 67.6% 31.7% .44% |8.0% 3.8% .05% %ofWItotal[GT] D Douglas 25172| 8448 16534 32 25 125 5 3 E Dane 273968| 90356 181032 742 331 1461 19 27 M Menominee 1710| 288 1412 2 1 6 1 0 O 10%ofGT 300850| 99092 198978 1592 C DEMOCRAT = 100%| 32.9% 66.1% .53% |3.3% 6.65% .05% %ofWItotal[GT] U Racine 101502| 52449 48226 245 62 459 20 41 R Brown 123081| 67113 54889 268 91 666 9 45 B Milwaukee 481021| 180041 297260 963 319 2227 144 67 A 24%ofGT 705604| 299603 400375 3352 N URBAN = 100%| 42.5% 56.7% .48% |10.01% 13.38% .11% %ofWItotal[GT] 3540wards 100%==49.36% 49.76% .22% .09% .55% .01% .02% WItotal[GT]2992390|1477122 1488935 6456 2674 16324 414 465 - - - Nov 7 2000 GRAND | REP DEM WGR WI National TOTAL| BUSH GORE LIB CON NADER MORE HAR HAG BUCHA Scat ------|------- ------ ---- ---- ----- ---- --- --- ----- ---- S Adams 9116| 3920 4826 24 25 217 7 2 8 77 10 A Burnett 8151| 3967 3626 12 5 499 4 0 2 34 2 M Forest 4716| 2404 2158 9 2 126 1 0 1 15 0 P Iron 3507| 1734 1620 8 2 134 1 0 2 3 3 L 1%ofGT 25490| 12025 12230 53 34 976 13 2 13 129 15 E 4 County = 100%| 47% 48% 4% | .46% .47% .04% %ofWItotal[GT] R Ozaukee 47751| 31155 15030 98 22 1235 11 2 16 150 32 E Waukesha 03734| 133105 64319 419 163 4864 37 7 58 654 108 P Washington261412| 41162 18115 127 57 1563 30 2 17 288 51 U 12%ofGT 312897| 205422 97464 7662 B REPUBLICAN= 100%| 66% 31% 2% | 7.9% 3.8% .28% %ofWItotal[GT] D Douglas 21706| 6930 13593 42 17 975 8 8 10 101 22 E Dane 232739| 75790 142317 816 62 13030 54 25 98 346 201 M Menominee 1233| 225 949 2 3 47 6 0 0 1 0 O 10%ofGT 255678| 82945 156859 14052 C DEMOCRAT = 100%| 32% 61% 5% | 3.2% 6.0% .54% %ofWItotal[GT] U Racine 88865| 44014 41563 244 68 2436 31 7 28 409 65 R Brown 107769| 54258 49096 253 48 3311 34 6 28 650 85 B Milwaukee 433537| 163491 252329 1044 283 13953 134 92 132 1594 485 A 24%ofGT 630171| 261763 342988 19700 N URBAN = 100%| 41.5% 54.4% 3.1% |10.1% 13.2% .76% %ofWItotal[GT] 100%== 47.6% 47.8% 3.6% WItotal[GT]2598607|1237279 1242987 6640 2042 94070 1063 306 853 11471 1896

Analysis Detail & Percents L I N K S Specific Areas Totals & Percents

NYTimes 3/4/08 Ohio vote • www.VoteSmart.org

Wisconsin Elections: 2/19/08 Presidential Primary Democrats Republicans

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